As China focusses on self-sufficiency, Poland looks to new dairy markets

The Chinese push towards self-sufficiency in dairy products promises to tremendously impact global trade. Photo: Canva

Poland has seen exports to China steadily shrink in recent years, and the future outlook is far from bright, according to market players.

The share of Chinese dairy imports from Poland plummeted from 6.7% in 2022 to just 1.8% in 2023, independent analyst Janusz Piechociński told local news outlet PortalSpozywczy. The forecast for the coming years is not optimistic, but the Chinese market still offers some development opportunities, the analyst added.

China may fully abandon dairy imports by the end of the decade, noted Szymon Borucki, a spokesperson from the Polmlek Group.

Chinese imports fall

In January-July 2024, Poland’s dairy exports to China was valued at US$34.4 million, which reflects a 41% decline compared with the previous year, official data indicated.

In 2021, China imported 3.94 million tonnes of dairy products – a historic high – but in the following years, the figure steadily declined. Last year, it plunged to 2.9 million tonnes, down 12% from the previous year, valued at US$13 billion, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

This trend is gaining momentum. In the first half of this year, Chinese dairy imports dropped further by 16.3% compared with the previous year to 1.31 million tonnes. The largest supplier, New Zealand, exported US$2.8 billion worth of dairy products, a decrease of 14%. The Netherlands delivered US$768 million worth of products, which was 45% lower than in the first half of 2024.

A major shift

The Chinese push towards self-sufficiency in dairy products promises to tremendously impact global trade. “It is inevitable that China will be an exporter rather than an importer of dairy products,” Borucki emphasised.

Given the current situation, Polish companies that have been exporting to China are urged to proactively explore new markets or find niches, as a strategic move to stay ahead of the changes, he suggested.

However, he agreed that certain development opportunities on the Chinese dairy market will remain for the time being. “[China] is a huge importer of whey for feed purposes and specialist products such as WPC protein, lactose or, starting next year, lactoferrin. In these specialist products, we see the greatest potential for growth and maintaining the market in China in the future,” he said.