French dairy herd and milk production in steady decline

“In all important dairy regions in the world, milk production increases moderately. However, France is the exception. In our country, we have seen an important decline since the beginning of 2023. In August, that decline was less pronounced compared to the previous months. Our weekly data show that in the first week of that month, milk production was almost at the same level year-over-year. Later in the month and in the first week of September, the milk flow was lower again due to the very high temperatures in the country,” the economic institute for the dairy industry (CNIEL) says.

Decline in cow numbers

Last year, France had around 50,000 dairy farms; this is fewer than 10 years earlier by more than 20,000. The average number of cattle was 68, over 12 more than in 2011. The Technical Institute for Livestock, now called Idele, calculated the total number of dairy cows at the end of December 2022 at 3.44 million, a decline of 2.3% (around 80,000 head) compared to the end of 2021.

“This was the eighth consecutive year the number of dairy cows decreased. The decline has never been as severe as last year. Compared to the peak in 2014, the dairy herd now is 10.4% or 398,000 heads smaller,” Idele states.

In the main dairy region, Brittany, the decline has further increased in the last 4 years, while the north of France appears to be less affected.

In 2022, total milk production amounted to 24 million tonnes, which is 0.7% lower than in the previous year and 5.4% lower than in 2015. “Climate conditions with severe heat waves and prolonged dry periods increasingly affect milk production. In September 2022, there was some respite thanks to late grass growth, but in the last months of the year, production slowed down again,” according to Idele.

The far southwest of the country, which suffered from temperatures of over 40°C in the summer of 2022, showed a decrease in milk production of over 6%.

Consumption and production of dairy in France

Last year, France had just over 720 processing locations for cow’s milk. A significant number belong to large dairy companies like Lactalis, Sodiaal, Danone or Savencia, and there are also large numbers of regional or even local dairy factories like Fromagerie de la Durance or Cooperative Isigny Sainte-Mère. Together, they produced dairy products with a total value of over €40 billion.

As for consumption, in 2022, French families bought just over 2.1 billion litres of fresh milk, in France mostly long-life or conditionée, 2.1% less than in 2021. The consumption of ultra frais produce was almost 1.7 million tonnes; that of yoghurts was 0.92 million tonnes; and that of cheese, including fresh cheeses, was 1.16 million tonnes. In France, as in other countries, people bought less cheese because of inflation, CNIEL adds.

Organic milk

Finally, despite efforts and even subsidies from the French government and promotion from the dairy industry, the popularity of organic milk does not seem to be showing much improvement. The total consumption of organic food stuffs last year declined for the first time in over 10 years, and milk is no exception.

“In 2022, the organic dairy sector has been seriously destabilised,” Idele says. “The fall in consumption further increased during the whole year. Production of organic milk was 1.26 billion litres, 2.7% more than in 2021 thanks to the completion of conversions started earlier. However, consumption declined sharply after an earlier fall in 2021. An increasing number of dairies declassify organic milk to conventional, in some cases over 40% of all milk delivered, compared to 10% or at most 20% in previous years.”

In those cases, the farmer doesn’t receive the higher price for organic but has to make do with the price for conventional standard milk. This year, so far, 5.4% of all collected milk in France is organic. For the last few months, that percentage has remained reasonably stable and is also similar to the figure for 2022.